Typhoon Hagibis tracker: Latest path, GFS, charts, spaghetti models before Japan landfall

TYPHOON Hagibis has been hailed as the “strongest storm on Earth” by the NOAA as it rips through the Pacific Ocean towards Japan, threatening thousands of people in its wake. Here is Hagibis’ latest path forecast, GFS and Europe charts and spaghetti models.

Super Typhoon Hagibis is currently tearing through the Pacific Ocean with sustained wind speeds of 161mph, a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) based in Hawaii, maximum gusts from the storm are nearing 200mph. The storm is expected to progress towards the northwest and brush Japan later this week, but will likely to weaken before then.

The latest JTWC forecast specifies Hagibis will continue wheeling towards the northwest, where it may hit Japan’s east coast.

While it will hit over the weekend, it is expected to weaken before it makes landfall in the country.

The latest prognostic reasoning from the agency warned “warm” sea-surface temperatures will carry the storm at the same strength over the next 12 hours.

Within the next two days, however, Hagibis is expected to weaken.

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Typhoon Hagibis tracker latest path GFS Europe charts spaghetti models Japan landfall

Typhoon Hagibis tracker: Latest path, GFS and Charts, spaghetti models ahead of Japan landfall (Image: WXCHARTS)

Typhoon Hagibis path towards Japan

Typhoon Hagibis path towards Japan (Image: WXCHARTS)

The latest forecast reads: “Sty 20w (Typhoon Hagibis) will continue along its north-northwestward track as a passing mid-latitude trough to the north causes the str to reorient.

“The favourable environment is expected to persist with low VWS (vertical wind shear), warm SST (sea surface temperature), and strong upper-level outflow.

“Sty 20w is expected to maintain intensity for the first 12 hours due to the enhanced poleward outflow.

“However, sty 20w is expected to begin a gradual weakening trend after tau 12 (12 hours from the present) as the trough begins to interfere with outflow."

Typhoon Hagibis' GFS values

Typhoon Hagibis' GFS values (Image: WXCHARTS)

“Numerical models remain in good cross-track agreement but poor long-track speed agreement.

“After tau 48, a shortwave trough will pass over japan, weakening the str (Hagibis’ subtropical ridge) and allowing sty 20w to begin recurving.

“GFS and the GFS ensemble remain the easternmost outliers with navgem as the westernmost outlier in the short term.

“Placed near the multi-model consensus and main model grouping, there is good confidence in the official JTWC forecast in this portion of the track.”

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Spaghetti model showing Hagibis' path

Spaghetti model showing Hagibis' path (Image: CYCLOCANE)

As Japan prepares for Hagibis to make landfall, the US is keeping a close eye on three separate tropical disturbances.

The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) currently has three disturbances which could develop into a tropical cyclone mapped on its website.

Two of these have taken residence out in the Atlantic Ocean, one off the coast of North Carolina and a second off the coast of Delaware.

These disturbances have a 20 and 10 percent chance respectively of developing into a cyclone within the next 48 hours.

The third disturbance is in the centre of the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda and has a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.

A low-pressure system near the island is producing “gale force winds” according to the NHC.

Towards the end of the day, the NHC has warned it could become a “tropical or sub-tropical system” as it moves to the west.

The centre said “upper-level” winds will later become unfavourable and will slow storm development overnight.